Ever get the feeling that China's foreign policy moves are a bit of a paradox? On the one hand, China is a champion of global free trade and cooperation. They've lifted millions out of poverty through economic partnerships and investments around the world. But then, on the other hand, China gets weirdly paranoid and controlling, passing laws that crack down on foreign influence and lashing out at any perceived threats to their power. What gives? The truth is, China's approach to foreign policy is a mix of pragmatism and paranoia. They want to engage with the global community when it suits their interests, but the leadership is also deeply suspicious of foreign influence. Understanding this contradiction is key to predicting how China will act on the world stage and what it might mean for the rest of us.
China’s Quest for Global Power
China has big ambitions to become a major player on the global stage, and they're putting in the work to get there. Under President Xi Jinping's leadership, China's quest for power and influence is in full force.
China is flexing its muscles through major investments in developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia. They provide loans and build infrastructure like roads, railways, ports and bridges. On the surface, it looks generous, but it allows China to gain political and economic leverage. They get access to natural resources and new markets for Chinese goods.
China also uses its economic clout to get its way. They threaten trade restrictions or sanctions against countries that don't follow China's script. Australia recently got a taste of China's wrath after calling for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19. China imposed tariffs on several Australian exports, a warning to others not to cross them.
Militarily, China is expanding its naval forces to project power abroad. They have built military bases in the South China Sea and Africa. China also uses cyber attacks to steal technology and trade secrets from other nations. The goal is to catch up to Western military and technological supremacy.
China may portray itself as a humble developing country, but behind the facade is a ambitious nation bent on gaining global dominance - economically, technologically and militarily. While China's rise is inevitable, other world powers are wary of how China might wield its newfound power and influence. There is an uneasy balance between pragmatism and paranoia in China's foreign policy.
Territorial Ambitions: Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea
China has some major territorial ambitions, and Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea are at the top of their list.
Hong Kong was a British colony for over 150 years before being handed back to China in 1997. China agreed to allow Hong Kong to govern itself for 50 years under the "one country, two systems" principle. However, China has been tightening control and suppressing pro-democracy movements. Many fear Hong Kong will lose its autonomy ahead of schedule.
Taiwan has been self-governing since 1949 but China still considers it a province. China has threatened military force if Taiwan declares independence. China flies military aircraft near Taiwan to intimidate them and has poached some of Taiwan's few remaining diplomatic allies.
In the South China Sea, China claims historical rights to most of the waters - and the islands within them. Their massive land reclamation and militarization of islands shows their determination to dominate the region. Neighboring countries dispute China's claims and are concerned over threats to trade and transport routes. The US Navy conducts "freedom of navigation" operations to challenge China's claims.
China's ambitions are raising tensions globally. Their pragmatic growth and global partnerships are at odds with their paranoid control over territory and resistance to democratic reforms. Balancing the two sides is crucial to regional stability and China's relationships worldwide. Overall, China's pragmatism must overcome its paranoia for constructive progress to be made.
The Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Trillion Dollar Foreign Policy
China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy and
development strategy. Announced in 2013, the BRI aims to strengthen China’s connectivity with the world through infrastructure and trade. Some see it as a way for China to exert its influence on a global scale.
Massive investments in infrastructure
The BRI provides loans and investments for ports, roads, railways, and other infrastructure in Asia, Africa, and Europe. China has pledged over $1 trillion to hundreds of projects across the Global South. For developing countries, the BRI provides much-needed funds to upgrade their infrastructure. However, some worry these countries may become indebted to China.
Geostrategic goals
The BRI helps China achieve several strategic goals. It boosts trade with other countries, gaining access to raw materials and new markets for Chinese goods. New ports and railways make it easier for China to import gas and oil. The BRI also helps China exert more global influence. With greater economic ties, China gains more political sway over other nations. Some see this as China’s attempt to create its own sphere of influence to counter the West.
Controversy and criticism
The BRI is controversial and faces many criticisms. There are concerns about the lack of transparency in deals and debt sustainability for some countries. The BRI has been accused of facilitating corruption in some nations. Others argue China is purposely lending to countries that can't repay the debts, so it can gain control of strategic assets like ports or railways. The BRI also risks damaging the environment with coal plants and jeopardizing wildlife.
China hails the BRI as a "win-win" for cooperation and development. However, China stands to gain the most from this ambitious plan to connect the world through a "new Silk Road." For better or worse, the BRI is shaping geopolitics in the 21st century.
China’s Tense Relationships With the US and India
China’s relationships with the US and India are complicated, to say the least. There is a mix of economic cooperation and geopolitical tensions that shape how China interacts with these two major powers.
The US-China Relationship: A Delicate Dance
China and the US are deeply economically interdependent, with hundreds of billions in trade and investment flowing between the countries each year. However, there are also tensions over trade deficits, intellectual property rights, and influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The US has long seen China as a strategic competitor, worried about its growing global clout. There have been trade wars and technology disputes that flare up the rivalry.
The countries disagree over Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea. The US sends warships to contest China’s claims, angering Beijing.
There are also human rights concerns, with the US criticizing China’s policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. China accuses the US of interference.
Despite the tensions, the countries still cooperate on issues like climate change and global health. Their economies remain deeply tied together.
India and China: An Uneasy Neighborhood
As the two most populous countries in the world, China and India have a complex relationship. They fought a war in 1962 over disputed borders that still remain tense today.
There are economic links, with trade worth over $100 billion a year, but also a strategic rivalry for influence in Asia.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has invested in India’s neighbors like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal, alarming New Delhi.
Border disputes in the Himalayas have led to standoffs between troops. China claims territory that India administers.
Water is also a source of tension, with China controlling rivers that flow into India.
While pragmatic cooperation exists in some areas, a deeper geopolitical rivalry and distrust defines China’s relationships with both the US and India. There are too many tensions for these relationships to be truly friendly or stable in the coming decades.
The Future of China on the Global Stage
China’s future on the global stage is complex with many possible paths forward. On one hand, China’s growing economic and military power means it will likely play an even bigger role globally. However, there are also signs China may turn inward, focusing on domestic issues.
Increasing Global Influence
As China’s economy has boomed over the past few decades, its global influence has also grown. China funds major infrastructure projects around the world through its Belt and Road Initiative. It is also expanding its naval forces, building military bases in places like Djibouti. This expanding hard and soft power means China will likely continue shaping global politics, economics, and security matters in the coming decades.
Tensions with the West
At the same time, China’s relations with Western nations like the U.S. and Australia have deteriorated recently over various issues. There is a possibility these tensions could worsen, leading China to become more isolationist. China’s leaders are also very sensitive to any perceived threats to their control and stability. If domestic troubles emerge, China may direct its focus inward rather than outward.
Balancing Pragmatism and Paranoia
China’s future global role will depend on how its leaders balance pragmatism and paranoia. On the pragmatic side, China benefits greatly from global trade and engagement. However, China’s leaders are also paranoid about external threats to their power and any perceived challenges to China's territorial integrity. If pragmatism wins out, China will likely continue expanding its global influence. But if paranoia dominates, China could adopt more isolationist policies, turning inward to shore up control.
The future remains unclear, but one thing is certain—China will be a force shaping geopolitics for decades to come. Whether it embraces openness and global leadership or adopts a more isolationist stance will have significant implications for China and the world. The path China chooses will depend on the complex interplay of many political, economic and social factors inside one of history’s most powerful yet paranoid nations.
Conclusion
You've now seen how China's foreign policy is a blend of pragmatism and paranoia. On one hand, China wants to engage with the global community and benefit economically from cooperation and trade. But they remain deeply suspicious of Western intentions and the potential loss of power or control. It's a precarious balancing act that will likely shape geopolitics in the coming decades. As China's power grows, their pragmatism may win out and soothe some of their paranoia. Or their fear of losing control could intensify and damage relations. Only time will tell which path China chooses and how countries around the world will respond. For now China remains an enigma, but an enigma we have to work with. The future remains unwritten.